We can learn from the first week

Dakota Dozen
by Bruce Andera (dakotadozen@ksfypigskinpreview.com)

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The first games of a football season are always a little difficult for prognosticators such as myself. This is because we can preview and crunch numbers and look at team histories and coaches and returning players, but until that team actually plays a game or two, we have no real idea how a team is going to play.

So what did the first week of the 2009 football season teach us? Simple. It taught us that the ESD is a lot stronger than they’ve been in recent seasons. Aberdeen Central knocked off a Sioux Falls O’Gorman team that made some uncharacteristic mistakes last Saturday. Last week also taught us that a nine-man team couldn’t simply live on one speedy player alone. While often the team with the fastest player wins a nine-man game, that player still needs a supporting cast and able blockers.

Lastly, the first week of 2009 taught me that while home-field advantage is a great thing, it takes four quarters of near-perfect football to beat West Central.

There’s still a lot of football to be played this season, and many teams have yet to play a game, so let’s get on to this season’s first full set of twelve games!

GAMES OF THE WEEK

1. Avon (0-0) vs. Hanson (1-0) 

It’s Friday Morning Football y’all! I would love to be able to attend this game between two perennial nine-man football powerhouses, but the powers that scheduled the games of the 2009 Prairie Bowl decided to start the proceedings at Howard Wood Field in Sioux Falls at 10:00 a.m. with this tilt.

The Hanson Beavers, despite losing much of their 2008 roster and line, proved that they can still play with the force they played with last year in Hurley last week. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again now – Coaching matters more at this level of football than at any other. Both Avon and Hanson have great coaching staffs, but Avon has been so dominant the last few years, simply reloading each year, this season it’ll be backs Jeff Bertus, Marshall Cihak and Ryan Hauck that return to this power-running offense. It’s hard to pick against the Pirates. Add that to the fact that Avon is still seething over their home loss to the Beavers last season, and I’ll take Avon to win this great opening match-up by six.

2. Groton (0-1) at Aberdeen Roncalli (1-0)

Groton has gotten the better of their rivals to the west the last few times out, but Aberdeen Roncalli has the defense (proven by throwing a defensive shutout in their opening game last week) to take back control of this northern classic series. Groton, however has one of the best running backs in the state in magazine cover player Sam Thorson, who found the end zone 17 times last year. Expect a very low-scoring defensive game in Aberdeen, with a lot of running, because neither team likes to pass the ball much. I’m going to take the Cavaliers by four here. I just don’t believe that Groton has the line play on offense to resist the Cavalier defense for 48 minutes.

BOWLING ON THE PRAIRIE

3. Harrisburg (0-1) at Tri Valley (1-0)

With the McCook Central/Montrose co-op being formed this year, what was the Irish Bowl has been retired, replaced by the Prairie Bowl. This tilt is the last of the four games on the slate for Friday at Howard Wood Field in Sioux Falls, and features two teams with very contrasting styles.

Harrisburg proved last week in their home opener that they can still play with every other team in the state. They’re not as big as last year’s team, but they are a heck of a lot faster than last season. Quarterback Steven Miller is the main spark that makes the Tigers’ offense go. It seemed like every time the coaching staff let Miller run with the ball, usually on an option play, it went for significant yardage. Harrisburg will need to cut down on their mental mistakes, both with penalties and defensive assignments to get past the defending class 11B champion Tri Valley. The Mustangs had a little trouble early with Canton last week, but then, they started last year that way, too. The Mustangs can be expected to grind the ball on the ground on offense and use their very fast and stingy defense to win games this season. I think this will be a fine nightcap to a full day of football in Sioux Falls, but Harrisburg’s overall speed on both sides of the ball will be able to win a close game by two.

4. Howard (1-0) vs. Hurley/Marion (0-1)

Howard moved back to nine-man football this season, and have so far adapted their hard-nosed, power-running game to a nine man offense capable of scoring copious amounts of points. The Tigers didn’t lose much off their 11-man team that went 6-2 last year. Their defense has always been hard-hitting as well, and that spells bad news for Hurley/Marion if their line play doesn’t improve from what we saw last week. I do think the Cobras will improve and running back Brad Tunge will get his yards on the big 100-yard field in Sioux Falls, but it won’t be enough to stop Howard’s experienced rushing game. I’m taking Howard by 16 in this one.

5. Colman-Egan (0-0) vs. DeSmet/Iroquois (0-0) 

Despite having their third different coach in four seasons, the Colman-Egan C-E Hawks managed to make the state quarterfinals last season before getting decimated by Avon. Coach Jeff Hegge is back this season, and this continuity should only help a team with five starters back on both sides of the ball. The Eagles also have a lot of experience back from their 7-1 team last season. They’ll once again run plays from a shotgun spread formation led by Britton Spader, who can be deadly-accurate passing the ball at times. It should be interesting to see how these teams match up out of the gate this season, but I have to take DeSmet/Iroquois in this game by 12 points, as Colman-Egan should give them a battle early.

PRESIDENTIAL MADNESS

6. Sioux Falls O’Gorman (0-1) at Sioux Falls Roosevelt (1-0)

While Sioux Falls O’Gorman lost a close game in Aberdeen in the Hub City Bowl last week, it seems like the game played out much as last year’s loss to Brandon Valley in the opener was. A little slow at the start, not quite well-meshed, and ended up losing a game to a better-prepared team. Sioux Falls Roosevelt started the Kim Nelson Era by blowing Mitchell out of their own stadium last week.

Now, I have no doubts that the Knights will figure things out right quick. That’s what head coach Steve Kueter does so well. He is a master of both in-game and between-games adjustments to prepare his team to be better with each game. Quarterback Tony Viger is still a very fast runner and good overall leader, but their line isn’t as big as they’ve been in the past few seasons. Nelson became the second head football coach in Roosevelt football history and brings a full spread offense to Roosevelt this season, which is something that the Rough Riders will be running for the first time this season. O’Gorman had serious trouble with spread offenses in the past. The aforementioned Brandon Valley game and semifinal loss to Washington last year come to mind. If Roosevelt gets their offense off the ground quickly, which I think they’ll do, the Rough Riders will get their second win of the season, and leave the Knights at 0-2 for the first time in a very long time.

7.  Sioux Falls Washington (1-0) vs. Sioux Falls Lincoln (1-0)

This might be a re-match of last year’s state championship game, but the champs’ offense is a lot different than last year. The Patriots’ line showed a lot of mettle, coming together in the second half against Pierre. They’ll still be able to move the ball, but their defense is still suspect which will be a huge problem in this game. Washington, on the other hand, is still adding to their base spread offense to further attack defenses with different looks. It appears that Matt Hermanson will take the bulk of the quarterbacking duties, and with the weapons the Warriors have and the bad memories of their last two trips to the Dakota Dome, should have no problem rolling over the Patriots in this game.

WEST RIVER GAME OF THE WEEK

8. Stanley County (1-0) at Winner (1-0)

While both teams won their opening games, Winner simply showed a lot more talent on their team than Stanley County did. The Warriors have the better part of last year’s class 11A runner-up team back on the field in this game. The Warriors, however had some trouble with faster backs late last season. The Buffaloes have some great overall team speed, but lack the size up front to hold off pursuing defenders. I still expect Winner to take this game at home by 21.

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST

9. Bon Homme (1-0) at Platte-Geddes/Dakota Christian (1-0)

While Bon Homme had very little trouble dispatching Tea on the road last week, Platte-Geddes/Dakota Christian had their hands full in Salem. While the Black Panthers have a very good running game with running back Thad Campbell, quarterback Lee Niewenhuis, and receiver and runner Tommy Holloman. That three-headed attack was able to largely control the clock in that game, but PGDC is prone to giving up big plays due to a lack of speed on the edges, which will be a problem in this game. They face Bon Homme’s star back Robbie Jelsma, and the Cavaliers’ other weapons. Even though the game is in Platte, I expect Bon Homme to take full advantage of their edge in speed, and win this game by 10.

10. Arlington (0-0) at Estelline (0-0)

Both teams are in the pre-season state championship discussion in class 9A, and this game will give a very good look at where both teams stand this season. These teams have played some very exciting games in the past few seasons, and once again meet on opening day. Estelline has a new coach this season, and though they’re used to a run-heavy offense, it stands to reason that the Redmen could pass the ball a few more times this season. I expect another hard-fought game between these two teams, with the home Estelline Redmen coming out on top by a single point.

11. Gregory (0-0) at Emery/Ethan (1-0)

In the last two seasons, these two teams have played in an early-season game, and once for a state championship.  In each game, the Seahawks won, increasing the margin of victory in each game. If the Gorillas and their coaches saw what Emery/Ethan did to Freeman last week, then they’ll know that their defense has to improve from last season to have any chance at winning this game. The Seahawks have a great coaching staff, and though Gregory is good, Emery/Ethan should still win this game without much problem.

12. Clark/Willow Lake (0-0) at Garretson (1-0) 

Clark/Willow Lake starts their new co-op this season by visiting a team that has been very, very good at home in the past few seasons. The Garretson Blue Dragons have created an atmosphere at their field that fosters a true home-field advantage. It also helps that they have an excellent running game out of their I-formation, led by Shane Vandeberg, but watch for their passing game, however. It can be deadly once the defense has been lulled by their running game. Clark returns to the 11-man ranks this season, and has third-season starting quarterback Derek Brown leading them. He’s got an accurate passing arm and will do so under the Cyclones’ single-back offense this season. It usually takes a few games for a new co-op to completely gel, and this one is no different. Garretson will win by at least a few touchdowns, but look for the Cyclones down the road.